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Donor harmonisation is still in the early stages
Somalia between hope and scepticism
Private sector as engine for development
Debating development and the private sector
11/2004 |
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[ New President ]
Somalia between hope and scepticism
“I believe that the chances are better now than at earlier occasions.” Asha Hagi Elmi expresses a qualified confidence in the fourteenth attempt since 1991 to create long-term peace and stability in Somalia. The chairperson of an organisation for women’s and children’s rights has, as a civil society representative, already been involved in earlier efforts to get Somalia out of the turmoil that has haunted the country ever since dictator Siad Barre was overthrown thirteen years ago.
Today, Asha Hagi is a member of the new interim parliament that has been agreed on by all relevant warlords and clan leaders. In September, it took up work in Nairobi. Mogadishu, the Somali capital, is still considered too dangerous. Asha Hagi’s bases her optimism on the fact that the peace talks held over the last two years succeeded in involving all clans and warlords as well as activists from civil society. In addition, all of Somalia’s neighbours in the regional organisation IGAD pulled together to drive forward negotiations. By contrast, the interim Somali government installed in 2000 under President Abdulkassim Salat Hassan had never been able to rely on such unity. Consequently, it was of little help.
The new key player in Somalia is Abdullahi Yusuf. The interim parliament elected the former president of the autonomous province of Puntland as Somalia’s new head of state. Yusuf was to appoint a prime minister in October and put him in charge of forming a government – a task demanding much sensitivity, according to Asha Hagi. For the peace process to be successful, the new government must be “representative” and able to tackle the country’s problems. The division of power between warlords and clans must be taken into account. At the same time, the various government factions must not obstruct each other.
Ulf Terlinden of the Bonn Center for Development Research (ZEF) also sees this as a possible trap. According to him, Somalia “still doesn’t have a government , which regards itself as a unit and not just as representing warlord factions.” Terlinden expresses mixed feelings because of the involvement of the warlords: “Without them, nothing will work. On the other hand, their weight implies a loss of participation and legitimation.” . The expert on the region says that the warlords had increasingly dominated the peace process and driven out representatives of civil society and the traditional elders. “In the end, the elders did no more than approve of what the warlords had decided.”
It remains to be decided what structure the new Somalia will have. The new Transitional National Charter states that Somalia should be a federal state. However, according to Ulf Terlinden, it is completely unclear what relationship the new government will have with the local and regional administrations which already exist. “There is no concept for a federal state,” according to Terlinden
Relations with Somaliland are especially tricky. Somaliland is the northern Somali province, which declared independence after the overthrow of Barre. In Somaliland, the ruling elite managed to pacify the territory and set up basic government structures. To a large extent, this has been done without outside intervention. These jobs still remain to be tackled in Somalia – with international assistance and mediation. The leaders of Somaliland did not take part in the Somali peace talks. “In my view, that means that Somaliland should join the country at a later stage, ” Asha Hagi comments. For the time being, however, that is out of the question. Somalia’s new president had hardly been elected before the government of Somaliland warned that it would not put up with violations of its borders or sovereignty.
Somaliland’s concerns are not least due to the identity of the new Somali president. With 70 year old Abdullahi Yusuf as their leader, the Puntland militia occupied disputed areas in West Somaliland in September. Ulf Terlinden bemoans that IGAD and the other states, which supported the Somali peace process, did not take notice of this conflict.
Making matters worse, “the destabilisation of Somaliland was a trump card in the peace talks – and both Puntland and fundamental nationalists from the south have made use of that.” According to Terlinden, it is impossible to rule out “that a new round of bloodshed will be rung in with the election of Yusuf.” Ethiopia, above all, is said to be able to prevent this from happening. Somalia’s large neighbour maintains good relations with both Somaliland and Abdullahi Yusuf.
Despite all shortcomings and risks, Terlinden agrees with Asha Hagi that the donor countries should continue to support the fourteenth peace attempt in Somalia. However, they should also strengthen their monitoring of the process, he says. Financial support should be organised in a way minimising the potential for corruption, clientelism and greed that could rekindle conflict. Asha Hagi says that the wealthy countries and the United Nations should “encourage Somalia to re-invent itself.”
In the meantime, there have been encouraging signals from the arms market. According to the BBC, the price for AK-47 automatic rifles in Mogadishu has halved after Yusuf was elected. Demand is apparently declining. (ell)
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