D+C Development and Cooperation (No. 1, January/February 2000, p. 3)

Still, even if we no longer have such a popularly accepted timeframe for action, we shouldn't lose the sense of urgency when we approach the problems of tomorrow. The German Foundation for International Development (DSE), therefore, was well advised to organise a high-calibered policy dialogue in Hannover on the subject of Population and Sustainable Development which served at the same time as the official opening event by the German development ministry (BMZ) for the world exhibition EXPO 2000. World population, which has just passed the six billion mark, will stand at 8 or 9 billion by the middle of this century, and it will continue to grow until its eventual stabilisation at about 12 to 13 billion a century later. What will this mean for the world's natural resources? Will there be enough clean water, pure air, food and energy to sustain such a large population? Will it be possible to reduce poverty and achieve a more equitable distribution of wealth? And can we slow down the rapid population growth so that we gain more time to adjust to the large numbers? Answers to these questions will also be offered at EXPO 2000 which attempts to show innovative ideas and solutions to the problems of the future under the motto "Humankind - Nature - Technology".

The DSE symposium which brought together almost 80 personalities from all parts of the world - economists, population experts, development officials and practitioners, politicians, and representatives of grassroots organisations - provided some valuable insights into present thinking on development. The doomsayers are out, almost everybody agrees that there is reason for optimism, because the global resources are sufficient - if prudently used - to sustain more than the present population of the world. Mahatma Gandhi's famous dictum was quoted time and again: "The earth has enough for every man's need, but not for every man's greed." Enough there may be, but it is not available for all. This creates enormous tensions and threatens the stability of the global society. One participant - Prof. Sergey Kapitza from Moscow - explained in a truly historical perspective on human development, how it took a million years for homo habilis to grow to a number of one billion. It took another 200 years to grow to six billion. Growth will still continue for a century and a half, but after that we will have a stable or even falling population - a completely new situation in human history which will require new answers and behavioural changes. Dangers lurk along the way of demographic transition from rapid growth to stagnation. Especially Asia, where most of the world's population is concentrated and where two giant nations - India and China - will compete for land and resources, poses a threat to security. But, as Prof. Kapitza pointed out, the time of demographic transition in Europe and North America was not only a time of war and unrest, but also one of tremendous scientific advance and technological breakthroughs. If education and fundamental science were encouraged in the East, this could lead to "basically new dimensions in human progress."

Change in behaviour and values were also demanded by Iran's Vice President and Head of the Department of the Environment, Massoumeh Ebtekar. "The current contradictions that we face probably stem from the fact that we seek peace, security and sustainability at the general and global level while we lack inner peace and tranquility at the individual level", she said asking for a radical departure from the materialist and consumerist value system spread throughout the world through globalisation. This echoed Mahatma Gandhi's thoughts, but it also struck a chord with Angelique Savané from Senegal, who spoke of the need for a new development paradigm, and Prof. Debabar Banerji from India, who said a world was "megalomaniac" in which only 7 per cent of global resources went to 70 per cent of the population. Also Klaus Töpfer, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, saw the need for drastic change in North-South relations when he demanded an end to the present practice by the North to externalise the costs of environmental degradation at the expense of the South. Sustainable ways of producing and consuming would, of course, be more readily pursued by the industrial countries if they had to bear the true cost of their wasteful production patterns.

The readiness to accept these paradigmatic changes can rarely be seen among politicians in the North. But the South has no time to wait. That people in developing countries can achieve a lot even against the odds was demonstrated vividly by Mechai Viravaidya of Thailand and Prof. Mohammed Yunus of Bangladesh. Both have made tremendous contributions to lessening poverty, promoting development, and slowing down population growth in their countries. These examples give hope that mankind will continue to sustain itself in the new millennium - as it has done in the last one million years.