D+C Development and Cooperation (No. 3, May/June 2000, p. 3)

The “Green Card” debate is controversial in Germany, because the country still has more than 4 million people unemployed, a large part of them in the former communist East Germany. Many people do not understand why the IT industry wants to import labour from abroad when there is such a large surplus at home. Populist politicians play on the emotions of the public with slogans like “Children instead of Indians”, suggesting that Germany would not need computer specialists from India if German women had more children and the population would start growing again. This is an absurd argument because children born today would not enter the labour market before the year 2025. And the crux with the four million unemployed persons is that they do not have the skills needed in the modern, globalised economy, and many of them are too old to adjust and acquire the knowledge to keep up with the rapid technological and scientific developments.

Inadvertently, the Chancellor’s “Green Card” idea has opened the long-suppressed discussion on whether or not the country should have an immigration policy. In the past, Germany had one of the most liberal laws for political asylum seekers; it also allowed large-scale immigration of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe and for special groups like Jews from the former Soviet Union; furthermore, it gave temporary shelter to large numbers of refugees from the civil war areas on the Balkans; and, in the 1960s and 1970s, it attracted millions of so-called guest workers, mainly from Turkey and Southern Europe, to supply labour during the ‘economic miracle’. The result of all this migration is that the number of foreigners now stands at about 7.5 million, or more than 9 per cent of Germany’s 82 million population. But much of the immigration in the past was accidental, partly even illegal; with the exception of the guest workers, it was not dictated by the interests of the host country - as in classical immigration countries like the USA or Australia - but by the needs of the immigrant groups.

Suddenly, immigration policy is on the political agenda. This is why a study published in January by the United Nations Population Division received unusual attention in Berlin when it was presented to the press by the German Association for the United Nations (DGVN). The study with the title “Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?” found that without massive immigration, industrial countries ranging from the US and Europe to Russia and South Korea will suffer substantial losses in population within the next 50 years. In the case of Germany, 324000 immigrants per year are needed till 2050 if the present population size is to be maintained. If the present strength of the working age population (15 to 65 years) is to be maintained, almost half a million must immigrate every year. And to maintain the present ratio between those who are in the working age and those who have to be supported (children, elderly), the annual immigration required would rise to an absurd 3.4 million.

Whatever the value of these scenarios - it is clear that Germany needs a substantial influx of people from outside. An increase in the birth rate in the order needed to compensate the effects of ageing is beyond imagination given the social, economic and political environment which will prevent women from returning to becoming mothers of many children. Even if they did, it would take several decades to stabilise the population size. If, however, immigration will remain a permanent feature in Germany, it should be given a predictable form and favour those immigrants who can make a contribution to the economy rather than being a burden to the taxpayers; in other words, it should be a voluntary and mutually beneficial process.

This gives a chance to young people in developing countries who have the skills and the push to make their way in a highly competitive globalised world economy. Sceptics will argue that the resultant brain drain on the countries of origin will further marginalise the developing world. This is only partly true. Remittances from highly paid experts are welcome additions to foreign exchange balances of many Third World countries, and the experience gained in working in state-of-the-art enterprises and research institutions in the North is indispensable for any catching-up process in the South. One side effect of the “Green Card” debate in Germany is, by the way, that people suddenly realised that IT skills may be further advanced in a seemingly ‘backward’ and poor country like India - a healthy learning effect in an ageing society where older people often have no idea of computers and modern communications.

No only Germany, other industrialised countries, too, are increasingly caught in the ageing trap. As the UN study shows, all European countries will need substantial immigration in the forthcoming years in order to compensate, if even partially, the effects of the population dynamics. This is a chance for those who can throw their youth and openness for modernisation into the balance.