According to the German Federation of Chambers of Industry and Commerce
(DIHT), no less than 45 per cent of the country's companies either have not yet dealt with their computer systems' Year 2000 compliance, or have not done enough about the looming problem of the turn of the millennium. In the developing countries, however, there is a far greater danger that the so-called 'Y2K bug' will cause serious difficulties in production or supply chains.
The Y2K problem arises from the fact that older computers and programmes work mostly with only two digits to indicate the year, and will not function properly at the turn of the century. They will read January 1, 2000 as January 1, 1900. But not only hardware, operating systems and software applications will be affected; all systems that work with date-reliant embedded chips will also suffer.
The World Bank estimates that most developing countries still are largely unprepared for the Year 2000 problem. The bank believes the most important public and private sector services, such as telecommunications and supplies of electricity, food and fuel, will be interrupted. The safety, health and daily well-being of the people of the developing countries, the Bank warns, are endangered.
To a much greater degree than in the industrialised nations, the developing countries lack money to convert computer networks or install new ones. Many governments of the countries of the South also either have not yet perceived the threat or have ignored it. According to the World Bank, in the first quarter of 1999 only 54 of 139 developing countries surveyed had begun to draw up a national strategy to deal with the Y2K problem. Only 21 countries had taken concrete steps towards coping with it. But even where the problem is recognised as pressing, the World Bank adds, time and money will hardly suffice to take timely remedial action.
Many developing countries believe the Year 2000 problem is one for the industrialised world, the Bank reports. It says they see themselves as being largely immune to malfunctions because of their relatively low level of automation. But in reality the countries of the South depend upon fewer and older computer systems.
A study by the US Gartner Group consultancy puts the worldwide total cost of converting computer systems to Year 2000 compliance at US$ 300-600 billion. The study, which covered 15,000 companies in 87 countries, says nations such as India, Nigeria and South Africa must begin immediately to draw up plans for dealing with emergencies. In every second state authority or private sector company in Latin America, the study adds, there will be at least one serious breakdown. Social unrest and economic rises are seen as being at least possible. Most governments are withholding information on to what extent they are prepared for the Y2K problem for fear of scaring off investors. Some stock exchange analysts expect the problem to result in a worldwide recession.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) believes the Year 2000 problem is a serious threat to global food production. It says that so far not enough account has been taken of agriculture's dependence on computers. The Y2K problem involves almost all sectors of agricultural production. There could be breakdowns in supplies of seed, fertiliser and spare parts, in irrigation, electricity supply and computerised market information systems.
Venezuela has not excluded food supply shortages. Projections say production lines in about 40 per cent of the country's factories could come to a standstill.
Alejandro Bermudez, the Venezuelan government's information technology expert, puts the sum his country needs to remedy its computer problems at US$ 1.5 billion. But even if it had the money, it would take two to four years to master them. In Chile, where the cost of converting the public administration's computer systems is estimated to total about US$ 1 billion, the country's pension fund has already registered a failure of its pension calculation system.
As part of its 'infoDev' (Information for Development) programme, which is aimed in particular at supporting the poorer countries in using modern information and communication technologies, the World Bank has given great attention to the Year 2000 problem. It has set up an International Y2K Cooperation Centre which implements both regional and sectoral projects and currently supports more than 80 countries.
The Bank's assistance programme focuses on electricity supply and distribution, the financial sector, telecommunications, transport systems, health and education, and food and fuel supplies. Besides implementing projects to convert computer systems, the Bank has launched a wide-ranging information campaign. In addition, the Bank supports the development of crisis plans to deal with breakdowns in supply chains. The first countries to receive help include Argentina, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Turkey and Ukraine.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) also offer concrete assistance. The UNDP says only eight per cent of China's banks have begun Y2K projects. In South Korea the figure is 17 per cent, and in Malaysia 28 per cent. According to a study, 52 per cent of the money spent so far worldwide in preventive measures against the 'millennium bug' has been invested in North America and 28 per cent in Europe. Only 2 per cent of the funds are available to Latin America, and only 1 per cent to Africa and the Middle East.
Useful Internet addresses:
Info21 UNDP (UN Development Programme)
http://www.undp.org/info21
infoDev Year 2000 Initiative (World Bank)
http://www.worldbank.org/infodev
International Y2K Cooperation Centre (World Bank)
http://www.iy2kcc.org
ITU Year 2000 Task Force
(International Telecommunications Union)
http://www.itu.intranet/y2k
Y2K and the Developing Countries
http://www.sustainableworld.com/y2kgps/y2keng/y2kdevcoun.html
