D+C Development and Cooperation (No. 6, November/December 2002)

The proportion of villagers with malaria parasites in their blood went down from 42 to 4 per cent in a five-year experiment in Viet Nam, the World Health Organization reports. The figures are from Phan Tien, a settlement in the wooded mountainous province of Binh Thuan,in southern Viet Nam, and they help to account for the steep decline of malaria nationally in the last decade, since communities in endemic areas across the country are using a similar strategy. The study documents how the combination of a bednet programme, a community-based primary health care system by which to provide early diagnosis and prompt treatment to patients, and annual malaria surveys "brought malaria under control remarkably quickly," the authors, Le Q. Hung and colleagues, write.
Though up to two million people in the world die each year of malaria, no new method of controlling the disease has been found since the introduction of insecticide-treated bednets in the 1980s. These reduce infection but cannot prevent or control the disease on their own. The recommended strategy is therefore to make systematic use of all the appropriate means available. In Phan Tien in 1994, where 30 of the 750 inhabitants had died of malaria earlier in the year, the first step was to set up a health post. Two medical staff were appointed and equipped with microscope for diagnosis and a supply of artesunate for treatment. In addition, 10 community members were appointed as "health co-workers" to assure the distribution and use of bednets and their reimpregnation with permethrin every six months, to help carry out annual malaria surveys at the end of the rainy season, and to spread basic knowledge about how to avoid infection or seek treatment for it.
By 1998 the population had grown to 1028 and no cases of malaria were detected in the annual survey. The following year, however, 18 cases were detected, explained in part to a substandard batch of permethrin, imported cases from road workers, and a decline in vigilance due to the feeling that malaria was not a problem any more. "The whole challenge of malaria control can be seen in this one example", said Dr Kamini Mendis of WHO's Roll Back Malaria programme: "the means exist and they can be very effective, but only if they are fully used and on a continuous basis".
(WHO)

Iraq Sanctions - What Results?

"Iraq Sanctions: Humanitarian Implications and Options for the Future" is the title of a study published by the Global Policy Forum 12 years after the United Nations imposed economic sanctions against Iraq on August 6, 1990. The study shows the devastating effects the sanctions have had on the civilian population, especially children, in the country. It says that while sanctions are not the sole cause of human suffering in Iraq and the government bears a heavy burden of responsibility due to the wars it started and its domestic repression, the United Nations Security Council, especially the United States and Britain, share the responsibility for the humanitarian crisis. The Oil-for-Food programme of the United Nations which allowed the sale of limited amounts of oil, failed to resolve the humanitarian crisis, says the study. Punitive deductions for war reparations weaken the programme as do unacceptable delays in delivery with less than 60 per cent of all items ordered from oil sales since December 1996 having actually arrived in Iraq. As a result, 400,000 children under the age of five are estimated to have died due to the sanctions.
The "smart sanctions" recently proposed by the USA and Britain offer small improvements and have little in common with the "targeted sanctions" that experts have proposed in recent years. These would directly impact Iraq's leaders by freezing their assets and preventing their international travel.
The study proposes a change in policy by the United Nations and suggests the lifting of comprehensive sanctions and the resumption of free trade and foreign investments;
The reintroduction of robust weapons monitoring to insure disarmament and prevent the building of weapons of mass destruction;
The introduction of "targeted sanction" in case of the Iraqi government failing to cooperate with the United Nations on disarmament.
The study concludes that "if Iraq is to return to normalcy, it must be freed from constant military pressure, threats and intimidation. The Security Council's decision, not unilateral action by one or two powerful states, must prevail, says the study.
Further elements for the design of post-sanctions Iraq include emergency relief to bring an end to the human suffering, large-scale reconstruction of Iraq's infrastructure, and safeguards for minorities such as the Kurds, including federative structures, and possibly a UN presence to monitor and promote human rights.
The study was published by the New York based Global Policy Forum together with a number of international organisations including Save the Children (UK), the US Institute for Policy Studies, and the German World Economy, Ecology and Development Association (WEED).

NGOs Demand Fair Trade Arrangements with ACP States

Two German NGOs - terre des hommes and World Economy, Ecology and Development (WEED) - have demanded new and fair trade agreements between the European Union and the ACP states to protect regional ACP markets from unfair competition from Europe. In a statement published on the occasion of the official opening of EU-ACP negotiations on so-called economic partnership agreements in September, the two NGOs said: "It is doubtful that the EU proposal to conclude regional free trade agreements with ACP states until 2007 will benefit ACP states. On the contrary: producers and exporters in the EU stand to gain since the new free trade agreements will guarantee them customs-free access to ACP markets."
The NGOs demand that the negotiating partners formulate clear principles and targets as benchmarks to monitor whether the envisaged agreements really conform with the development objectives of the Cotonou Treaty. The EU should oblige itself to grant tariff- and quota-free access to its market for all products from ACP states already during the negotiations and at the same time initiate programmes to strengthen production and supply capacities in those countries. The external effects of Europe's common agricultural policy on small-scale farmers in ACP states should at last be taken into account. "The dramatic consequences of a perverse policy of subsidizing European agriculture must have an end", the two organisations demanded.
They also proposed comprehensive sustainability studies to assess the financial, ecological and social consequences of trade liberalisation on ACP states. Especially the least developed ACP countries in which 60 per cent of the people live are not prepared for the opening of their markets to goods, investments and services from EU states, the NGOs said. People in those countries should have a say in the negotiations, also through regular consultations between the EU and the parliamentary assembly of the ACP countries.
(WEED)

Globalisation Process Loses Momentum

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of transnational companies which fuelled the globalisation process in the past decade was nearly halved in 2001. FDI to industrial and developing countries amounted to only US$735 billion - with industrial countries like Britain and Germany being among the biggest losers. FDI in developing countries dropped by 14 per cent. Only China benefited from an increased flow of direct foreign investments in 2001 which is explained by the country's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) last year.
The United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its World Investment Report said the decline in FDI is mainly due to the weakness of the stock markets which led to fewer international mergers and company sales. The influence of the attacks on September 11 is rated to be rather insignificant in this respect. The decline in FDI is expected to continue through 2002.
However, UNCTAD economists do not believe that the trend towards economic globalisation is ended. The FDI figures for 2001 are seen as a sign of normalisation after the boom of the 1990s. Continuing high foreign direct investments in some developing countries and in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are seen as an indication that the longterm trend is unbroken. Countries like China, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa will remain major markets of transnational corporations (TNCs) attracting investments from abroad. In 2001, the 65 000 TNCs and their estimated 850 000 affiliates employed 54 million people around the globe. That is more than twice as much as in 1990. The annual turnover of these companies reached US$19 000 billion - more than twice the volume of all world exports.
(FAZ)

Solid Growth in Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is one of the few regions in the world not affected by the global economic stagnation. According to the Austria Credit Bank continuing investments, stability-oriented economic policies, and comprehensive structural changes in the region have led to stronger growth than in Asia and Latin America. CEE is now a leading emerging markets region'.
CEE is ahead in every indicator: economic growth, domestic and foreign direct investments, a moderate foreign indebtedness, low interest rates, and a good performance of stock markets. Average per-capita incomes rose by 29 per cent during the last 5 years, whereas Asia experienced a 5 per cent drop and Latin America one of 13 per cent. During the same period, inflation dropped from 50 to 5 per cent and foreign exchange rates remained almost stable. This is why 8 CEE countries are found among the 10 highest ranking emerging markets.
The rising competitiveness of CEE exports is caused by an above-average investment rate, according to the Austrian Bank. The investment rate lies around 26 per cent compared with 20 per cent in the EURO zone. Foreign direct investment between 1997 and 2003 will amount to US$57 billion, or 22 per cent of GDP.
For the year 2003, the Austria Bank expects and average growth in most CEE states of 4 to 4.5 per cent.
(FAZ)

World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030

Globally there will be enough food for a growing world population by the year 2030, but hundreds of millions of people in developing countries will remain hungry and many of the environmental problems caused by agriculture will remain serious, according to the summary report of "World agriculture: toward 2015/2030", a study launched by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
According to FAO, world population will grow from around 6 billion people today to 8.3 billion people in 2030. Population will be growing at an average of 1.1 per cent a year up to 2030, compared to 1.7 per cent annually over the past 30 years. At the same time, an ever increasing share of the world's population is well-fed. As a result, the growth in world demand for agricultural products is expected to slow further, from an average 2.2 per cent annually over the past 30 years to 1.5 per cent per year until 2030. In developing countries, the slowdown will be more dramatic, from 3.7 per 30 years to an average of 2 per cent until 2030.
However, the developing countries with low to medium levels of consumption, accounting for about half of the population in developing countries, would see demand growth slowing only from 2.9 to 2.5 per cent per year, and per caput consumption increasing.
The world population will be increasingly well-fed by 2030, with 3050 kilocalories (kcal) available per person, compared to 2360 kcal per person per day in the mid-1960s and 2800 kcal today. This change reflects above all the rising consumption in many developing countries whose average will be close to 3000 kcal in 2030.
The developing countries will become increasingly dependent on cereal, meat and milk imports, their production will not keep pace with demand. By 2030 they could be producing only 86 per cent of their own cereal needs, with net imports rising from currently 103 million tonnes to 265 million tonnes by 2030. Traditional grain exporters such as the US, the EU, Canada, Australia and Argentina, and the transition countries as emerging exporters, are expected to produce the surpluses needed to fill this gap. "If real food prices do not rise, and exports of industry products and services grow as previously, then most countries will be able to afford to import cereals to meet their needs. However, the poorest countries tend to be the least able to pay for imports."
Much of future food production growth will come from higher productivity. In developing countries, almost 70 per cent of the increase in crop production will come from higher yields, around 20 per cent from an expansion of arable land and around 10 per cent from multiple cropping and shorter fallow periods.
Irrigation is crucial to the world's food supplies. The developing countries are likely to expand their irrigated area from 202 million ha today to 242 million ha by 2030.
At global level there is enough water available, but some regions will face serious water shortages.
Modern biotechnology offers promise as a means to improving food security. If the environmental threats from biotechnology are addressed, and if the technology is affordable by and geared towards the needs of the poor and undernourished, genetically modified crop varieties could help to sustain farming in marginal areas and to restore degraded lands to production. To address the concerns of consumers FAO called for improved testing and safety protocols for genetically modified organisms.
Other promising technologies have emerged that combine increased production with improved environmental protection. These include no-till/conservation agriculture and integrated pest or nutrient management. Locally, organic agriculture could become a realistic alternative to traditional agriculture over the next 30 years.
Climate change could increase the dependency of some developing countries on food imports. The overall effect of climate change on global food production by 2030 is likely to be small. Production will probably be boosted in developed countries. Hardest hit will be small-scale farmers in areas affected by drought, flooding, salt water intrusion or sea surges. Some countries, mainly in Africa, are likely to become more vulnerable to food insecurity.
(FAO)