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Contributions from
the Column
InWEnt Forum
Global warming: Andean glaciers are melting away
Fragile states: Priorities …
Peacekeeping: End to illusions
01/2007 |
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[ Global warming ]
Andean glaciers are melting away
The effects of climate change are already clearly visible in the mountains of Latin America. Negative impacts will affect sectors such as water supply, electric-power generation and agriculture. The region, which is poor already, is likely to face severe harvest failures in future.
[ By Michael Funcke-Bartz ]
Sometimes James Wolfensohn is one step ahead of the crowd. Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” was not yet shown in cinemas, nor had Nicholas Stern’s stark warning about the economic disruptions of global warming been published. Yet as early as 2004, during his final speech as president of the World Bank at the multilateral institute’s annual conference, Wolfensohn quoted an old man from the Andes. He said the man had touched him with the simple question of what was to become of his mountain homeland, once the glaciers had disappeared.
Professionals share the old farmer’s worry. Salvador Sánchez of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says that mountain regions such as the Andes are extremely sensitive to climate change. Dwindling glaciers will have far-reaching repercussions – not only for nature’s eco-systems. Agriculture will be affected, water supply and power generation will be at risk, and the tourism industry will also suffer the consequences.
It is impossible to forecast exactly when the glacier masses of the Andes will melt away completely. At an international conference organised by InWEnt in Quito in autumn, researchers Eric Cardier and Bernard Francou of France’s Institut de Recherche pour le Développement agreed with Professor Ekkehard Jordan of Düsseldorf University on this point. While aerial and satellite photography make it relatively easy to capture the expanse of the glaciers, it is impossible to forecast future developments without knowing the thickness of the respective ice sheets. To collect such data one would need expensive radar measurements. There are so few local glaciologists in Latin America, however, that such analyses have been hardly done yet.
Another difficulty in making accurate predictions stems from the fact that glaciers drain in complex patterns. Surveys of diverse meltwater streams would be necessary, on all sides of the massifs concerned. Cotopaxi, one of Ecuador’s volcanoes, has been investigated quite thoroughly, but here geothermal processes produce additional melting. Moreover, a geographical characteristic of the Andes is the “páramo”. Typical of this high-altitude landscape are lakes and wetlands, which absorb large amounts of glacier water and, accordingly, also serve as natural retention basins. As the glaciers melt, these reservoirs will also shrink.
In spite of such uncertainties, one thing is indisputable – the melting of the Andean glaciers has accelerated since the early eighties. If temperatures continue to rise at the rate of 0.3 degrees per decade, the smaller glaciers at altitudes of less than 5,000 metres are likely to disappear in the next ten to fifteen years. But even glaciers at higher altitudes are losing ice. Walter Vergara, the lead engineer of the World Bank’s Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Division, estimates that air temperatures will rise by 3.5 to four degrees Celsius in the Andes at altitudes between 4,000 and 5,000 metres during the next 100 years.
Glaciers are considered very sensitive indicators of climate change. International attention usually focuses on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Should they melt, the sea level might rise considerably. Moreover, the system of global ocean currents might change. In Europe, the Alps get special attention because they are popular for skiing and tourism in general. Glaciers in Austria and Switzerland are already being covered with plastic in summer, in an effort to slow down melting, by protecting the ice from the sun.
Ominous trend
Even glaciers close to the equator are affected by global warming, however. Although they cover a total area of only 2,500 square kilometres, they are important. There are currently 18 glacier regions in Peru. According to the Instituto Nacional de Recursos Naturales, a body of the Ministry of Agriculture, the total area they cover declined by 22 % from 1970 to 1997.
The trend is ominous, because the region’s demand for water will increase, from both the general public and businesses. But as the glaciers shrink, so will the resources needed to meet the growing demand. Edgar Ayabaca is in a position to estimate what that will mean for the city of Quito. At the municipal water utility EMAAP-Q, he is the director in charge of resources. According to his data, additional investments of up to $ 700 million will be required by 2055, depending on how many additional reservoirs, canals and tunnels must be built. So far, he cannot say where that money will come from. His preference would be to raise it domestically, in order to avoid the risk of exchange-rate volatility compounding the challenge of interest payments.
Peru’s electricity supply also depends on water. Hydropower makes up 70 % of its generation capacity. Juan Olazabal of the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mining is concerned because the El Niño phenomenon regularly reduces rain fall in the region. Accordingly, the rivers’ lower water levels will further restrict power-plant operations. World Bank engineer Vergara estimates the replacement cost of one megawatt of power-plant capacity at $ 1.1 million.
Peru’s neighbours face similar problems. Bolivia generates half its electricity from hydropower, Ecuador more than 70 %. It is alarming that agriculture will suffer the effects of water shortages at the same time. The World Bank expert estimates that the region will experience severe harvest failures. Just for the Rio Santa area in Northern Peru, such costs may amount to $ 200 million annually.
A two-tier strategy is necessary to deal with the risks. First, the glacier’s natural water reservoirs must be replaced with artificial dams and retention basins. Such big construction projects take a long time to complete, and therefore work must begin without delay. The second approach is about efficiency. Water consumption must be reduced in agriculture and industry in general, energy used more efficiently, and power generated from alternative sources.
However, the economic situation of Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru is tense already, making it all the more important to manage scarce resources sensibly. Therefore, adequate local water provision in the Andes is of high priority for InWEnt (Funcke-Bartz, 2006). The agency cooperates closely with local authorities as well as national governments, the private sector, civil society and international bodies.
From the InWEnt point of view, it was a very positive sign that the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) participated in the conference in Quito. This regional organisation is currently working on recommendations for member governments to cope with climate change. Alan Viale of the CAN says that member countries’ environment ministries are already aware of the problems. Unfortunately, he cannot say the same for other important actors in agriculture, water utilities and industry in general, including power generation.
Latin America, by the way, is only a minor contributor to global warming. Barely four percent of worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, originate in this region. The USA, however, accounts for almost a third, and Europe for more than a quarter of global emissions.
Michael Funcke-Bartz
works for InWEnt’s Division for Sustainable Technologies, Industrial and Urban Development. He organised the regional conference in Quito.
michael.funcke-bartz@inwent.org
Reference:
Michael Funcke-Bartz, 2006: Sensible constraint management,
D+C/E+Z, February, p. 78-79
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