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Contributions from
the Column
Facts and trends
Werner-Schuster-Haus
Land policy: quick privatisation with disastrous consequences
Out of work
Cooperation with Jordan
Water is not like oil: there is no substitute for it
'Communities in the One World' Service Agency one year on
A change of course
"We must show that supporting independent NGO work is worthwhile"
US government: new money for fighting AIDS
Change to a more just agricultural trade not in the offing
Germany supports peace process in Sri Lanka
03/2003
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New study on the global water crisis
Water is not like oil: there is no substitute for it
In a joint study titled 'World Water and Food to 2025. Dealing with Scarcity', the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in Washington, and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), in Colombo, warn of a global water crisis. "If water is scarce, food will also be scarce," is the pithy summary of the report which the new IFPRI Director, Joachim von Braun, presented in Berlin on January 29. Based on several scenarios, the two institutes are pursuing the question of how water supply worldwide could develop to 2025 and what must be done to prevent crises.
"Business as usual" would mean that global water consumption over the next two decades would increase by at least 50 per cent. This forecast is based on population growth of two billion during that period but does not take account of global warming, which will probably also make the competition for water even tougher. If the additional quantity of water needed to supply the growing world population is withheld from agriculture, food production will decline to 2025 by 350 million tonnes per year– more than the annual grain harvest in the USA. Prices for wheat, maize and rice would more than double, said von Braun, thus becoming unaffordable for the poor. Hunger, disease and environmental destruction would increase worldwide.
"Water is different from oil," von Braun added. "There is no substitute for it." The IFPRI and IWMI study says three million children already are dying each year because they have no secure access to clean water. In many countries, von Braun said, safe water was a privilege of the rich who - to safeguard this privilege – brought their political influence to bear so that water pipelines were not laid in impoverished regions.
The study sets against the "business as usual" scenario a sustainability scenario which assumes short- and long-term reforms, initially in politics above all. For, von Braun said, it was a political task to provide for a free or at least very cheap basic water supply of up to 50 litres per head and day, including 10 litres of drinking water. Whoever consumed more than these quantities should pay much more for it. In addition, there was a need for purposeful investment in water-saving agriculture, such as in breeding drought-resistant plants.
Johannes Wendt
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