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Debate
Katrina will be felt internationally through oil prices
Afghanistan: pinning hopes on parliament
United Nations: summit of ambiguit
10/2005 |
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Comment
Afghanistan: expectations of parliament
It will be October before the results of the parliamentary elections in Afghanistan will be known. People had various expectations of the polls. Many Afghans hope that democracy will bring them greater prosperity and more security. For others, it stayed unclear why they were supposed to vote again after the presidential election last year. Warlords expect they will be able to consolidate their influence as members of parliament.
[ By Karen Fischer ]
Election day in Kabul: the streets are deserted, no cars, hardly a soul to be seen apart from the security forces who are on almost every corner. The polling stations are supposed to open at six o’clock. Not all of them do so. In one polling station, set up in a mosque, morning prayers have not yet finished and the election officials have to wait. There were delays throughout the country. However, these issues are minor problems given the logistical problems of organising an election in Afghanistan. The poor infrastructure and the lack of roads make it difficult to carry out and monitor an election. More importantly, the security situation remains unstable. Seven candidates were killed during the election campaign.
Nevertheless, there were high expectations of the parliamentary elections. The first setback came when the forecasts on voter turn out were published, putting it at about 50 percent. For the presidential election one year ago, turn out was 67 percent. However, it would be premature to determine the success or failure of the ballot solely by turn out, since there are a number of good reasons why fewer people voted. First, these elections are no longer a novelty, as Afghans did already have a vote last year. Second, the elections system is complicated and complex. A total of 5800 candidates ran for parliament’s lower house, the Wolesi Jirga, and the Provincial Councils. In Kabul alone, there were 390 names on the ballot paper, all listed as individuals, because there is no party system in the Afghan election process. Therefore, it is impossible to tell a candidate’s political leaning just from studying the ballot. This is what President Hamid Karzai wanted – against the advice of many election experts. Now the question arises of how the new parliament will work if it is made up of 249 individual members. It remains unclear whether and how coalitions are to be formed. There is a considerable risk that the parliament will prove a weak institution.
A third reason for the low turnout is that many voters were threatened and intimidated before the election into voting as the local warlord wanted. In many cases, that meant voting for the warlord himself. The warlords are interested in becoming members of parliament. Many Afghans fear that they want to extend their influence and power base further, under the disguise of democracy. If that were to happen, the unofficial power structures in the country would remain unchallenged.
But who is to prevent the warlords from moving into parliament once they are elected? The Electoral Complaints Commission has neither the mandate nor the resources to do anything about them. And the government will be wary of tangling with the warlords over this, even though the electoral law is quite clear that only those who are not associated with armed groups may run for parliament. If warlords should actually get into parliament, then the experiment of a parliamentary democracy in Afghanistan would be ill-fated from the outset.
Finally, many Afghans do not have a clear understanding of how the new parliament is designed and what functions it will serve. This ignorance has raised some expectations very high. But it is unlikely that the personal living conditions will improve fast after the elections or that there will finally be peace and security in Afghanistan. On the one hand, such expectations are hardly realistic and, on the other hand, it could still be some time before the parliament is able to do any work at all. It’s first session is scheduled for December. If that start were to be delayed for long, both voters and candidates could give up in frustration. And there would be even fewer people at the polling stations at the next elections.
Karen Fischer
is a free-lance editor for the German programme of Deutsche Welle Radio.
karen.fischer@dw-world.de
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