by Thomas Katamila, NAMPA, Windhoek/Namibia

In recent years, there have been more and more indications that climatic change is influencing the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes. According to the World Meteorological Organization(WMO), the last six years (2001 to 2006) were among the seven warmest recorded worldwide since 1861.

If global scientific climate models are accurate, the present problems will be magnified in the near future. These models suggest that we should expect an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world. Scientists also predict more extensive damage and economic, social and environmental consequences as a result of weather-related disasters.

Namibia has had the most unfortunate experience where by major insurance companies decided, jointly, not to insure businesses and houses in a flood-prone town in our southern regions called Mariental. The reason is that the town is situated in an area through which the big Fish River runs. As a result of seasonal flooding when heavy rains come down and embankments burst, businesses and homes are flooded. The Namibia Insurers' Association (NIA) announced last year that it had decided not to cover the town's flood-affected areas any longer.

Mariental and its surrounding areas have already suffered four separate floods, which the insurance industry says has cost it three times more than in previous years.

Flood losses last year were estimated at more than N$100 million(10 million Euros). 

NIA said its members had taken a collective decision to exclude any future losses resulting from flooding of properties situated downstream of the Hardap Dam and the lower Fish River.

The decision devastated a populace already on their knees, and a delegation went to State President Hifikepunye Pohamba to ask for guidance on what to do with the looming rainy season and the insurers' tough stance.

A task force was set up, but their decision has not been made known yet.

Christoph Bals from Germanwatch analysed design options for a climate change funding mechanism. He said 'avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable' are issues that need further analysis. One of his suggestions was also a self-financing climate regime, where the 'polluter' pays. Bals said an increasing number of people are affected by natural disasters in Africa, necessitating an insurance system that combines poverty reduction strategies.

"Low human development means high vulnerability and low insurability", he stressed. Small farmers are most vulnerable, because they are normally driven by their immediate needs. Rapid post-disaster or even pre-disaster support would thus be a good thing here, he advised. The challenges, though, were issues like affordability, lack of an insurance tradition and understanding, risk of moral hazards and changing risk trends.

"Public support should not destroy the crucial role of insurance. Discover the price of risk", Bals said. Weather-indexed insurance provides a basic form of risk-spreading widely available to farmers in the developed world, because it ties in with low overheads and low payments.

Dr Pablo Suarez from the Red Cross Netherlands Climate Centre said "insurance can help reduce risk". He advised that people start thinking of insurance as the hand that holds the key to unlocking the path that's helpful to the most vulnerable. Peter Hoeppe from Munich Re said in his contribution on the scientific and economic rationale for climate insurance that both the frequency of large natural disasters as well as the amount of damage caused by them have increased significantly over the last few decades.

In recent years, science has provided more and more evidence that there is a high probability of a causal correlation between climate change and these trends in natural catastrophes. Insurance-related mechanisms can thus be an effective part of adaptation strategies", he noted. Hoeppe further felt that one important step towards mitigating the effects of global warming is to provide proper insurance solutions to at least minimize the adverse financial consequences of an increasing number of natural catastrophes for countries and populations at risk.

However, the worldwide distribution of insurance availability is very inhomogeneous. While the industrialized countries in North America, Europe and Australia enjoy a high level of insurance penetration, in Africa, Asia and Latin America, are many countries with hardly any catastrophe insurance available. Although the economic losses caused by natural disasters are the highest in industrialized countries,in relative terms their overall impact on these economies has been rather minimal as they still have sufficient financial and technological resources to absorb it.

by Eric L. Lemus,  El Faro ,San Salvador/El Salvador

 

The UN Conference of Climate Change starts in Bali, Indonesia, the phase of strategic negotiations concerning the creation of an instrument to the Kyoto Protocol, in the fight against the global warming.

The Summit summons ministerial delegates of more than 190 countries to achieve a preparatory document where there is established a calendar of action and quotas for the reduction of dioxide of carbon emissions (CO2) by the industrialized nations.

But the first week of conversations of the parts received a bucket of cold water before the denial of the delegation of Canada and the United States that refuse to give a step without the developing countries do the same thing.

“Leaked negotiating instructions reveal Canada’s delegation has explicit instructions to demand binding, absolute emissions reductions from all major emitters”, published by ECO, a publication that represented Non-Governmental

Environmental Organisations.

Climate Chance is not an abstract concept and organizations like Greenpeace called the official delegates to be aware of the moment through that we live. The environment is a topic that concerns the whole humanity, holds the NGO.

“We believe that there is necessary more leadership and responsibility of the countries that are participating in Bali”, said Marco Furtado of Greenpeace.

On last weekend, many ecological activist organized public demonstrations around the world to claim the governments to take measurements that stop the climate change. The demonstrations were planned in more than 50 cities around the world to coincide with the Conference in Bali.

The Road Map would be the axle of the Conference of the Parts (COP 15), because it will take place in 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. “We can find new and better ways to produce, consume and discard. We can promote non-polluting industries and the creation of jobs while reducing carbon emissions”, said UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon.

But the final negotiations won’t be easy. China insisted that they won’t take step to reduce their CO2 emissions and insisted that other industrialized countries are those who lead by example in the fight against climate change.

Likewise, during the Convention came out that the combat against the CO2 emissions will need thousands of million dollars in investment and that this commitment goes far beyond of regulations to the asian giant.

Last week, a new report of the World Wildlife Foundation (WWF) warned that the impact of the climatic change added to the massive deforestation might eliminate or damage severely almost 60% of the Amazonian for 2030.

“The importance of the Amazonian for the global climate cannot be despised ", said Daniel Nepstad, author of WWF report’s spread in Bali.

In the Conference are two currents face. Optimists hope that delegates resolve an ideal frame that is equal and adapted to protect the climatic system, while pessimists are afraid that participants only adopt agreements of short term, which they do little for to stop the vulnerability of the planet.

by Andrea Varela, El Tiempo, Bogota/Colombia 

Entre los 10 mil participantes de 180 países que discuten el futuro del planeta en la Conferencia de Cambio Climático de Naciones Unidas que tiene lugar en Bali (Indonesia) hay expectativa por la visita del ex vice presidente norteamericano y Premio Nobel de la Paz Al Gore. Incluso por el rumor de que el actor Leonardo Di Caprio, productor del documental ambiental ¨La última hora¨, podría hacer una sorpresiva aparición.

Sin embargo, hay otros protagonistas que deben esforzarse mucho más por hacer oír su voz: las propias víctimas del calentamiento global que cruzaron el mundo para revelar ante los políticos y la prensa los impactos que la concentración de gases de efecto invernadero tiene sobre sus comunidades. Ursula Rakova llegó desde las islas Carterets, ubicadas en Papúa Nueva Guinea para explicar cómo el aumento del nivel del mar dividió en dos la isla en la que vive y cómo las tormentas extremas y cada vez más frecuentes dificultan la pesca, y por ende, la supervivencia de las 3.000 personas que habitan los siete atolones que componen la zona.

¨El mar se ha tragado entre 30 y 50 metros de nuestra costa. Muchos de nosotros se quedaron sin antejardín. Y eso es lo de menos: cada vez sufrimos épocas más largas de sequía seguidas por agresivos temporales. No tenemos ni gas ni electricidad, así que prácticamente no emitimos ningún gas de efecto invernadero, sin embargo, sufrimos en carne propia sus consecuencias¨, explicó. 

Según el último reporte del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático de la ONU el nivel del mar puede subir unos 43 centímetros para el año 2100. Rakova, sabe que no pueden esperar a que eso pase para hacer lo inevitable: evacuar. Aunque hace 18 años es activista ambiental su más reciente lucha es para lograr que el gobierno les ayude a financiar la compra de terrenos en el continente. ¨Necesitamos trasladarnos todos juntos para poder conservar nuestras costumbres y nuestra unidad como pueblo. Nos va a romper el corazón dejar nuestra isla pero construir barreras contra las olas ya no es suficiente”, concluyó.

Desde el hemisferio opuesto James Allen llegó a Bali para relatar el drama de su pueblo, la Primera Nación Champagna y Aishihik, una comunidad de 800 nativos de Yukón (Canadá) que han visto cómo los cambios de temperatura han provocado que especies pequeñas comoardillas y conejos emigren, y tras ellas, aseguran los pobladores, irán otras como linces, zorros, coyotes y lobos.

¨Estos cambios, debidos al calentamiento global tienen enormes repercusiones económicas para nuestra industria turística. El futuro no está claro para nuestros cazadores¨, advirtió.

A los miembros más viejos de la tribu cada vez se les dificulta más hacer pronósticos climáticos, hecho entendible si se tiene en cuenta que según los científicos las temperaturas promedio del hemisferio norte durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX han sido las más altas en por lo menos los últimos 1.300 años.

Sin embargo, su principal llamado de auxilio es por sus bosques, más de 450 mil hectáreas de coníferas que están siendo devorados por una plaga de diminutos cucarrones que proliferan por las inusuales temperaturas altas durante el inverno.

De plagas también sabe Felicitas Martínez, una indígena de 30 años, del estado mexicano de Guerrero, que salió de su pueblo, cultivador tradicional de café y maíz, para denunciar ante la comunidad internacional la aparición de una extraña plaga que está secando no solo losmaizales sino sus árboles de cocoyul, una especie nativa cuyas semillas utilizan para preparar bebidas tradicionales.

En su concepto, “el cambio climático no solo nos pueden dejar sin maíz, que es nuestro alimento sagrado, sino que hará subir el precio del producto y afectará nuestra seguridad alimentaria”. Con toda la evidencia cientìfica existente, el cambio climático ya dejó de ser un mito o un recurso de Hollywood para causar impacto. Es una realidad irrefutable que en Bali se mostró con rostro, nombre y apellido.

por Juliana Radler, Jornal do Meio Ambiente e Envolverde, Rio de Janeiro/Brasil

Durante as discussões sobre as Mudanças Climáticas, que contam com negociadores de 190 países em Convenção da ONU que ocorre em Bali até o dia 14, é unânime a convicção de que as florestas têm um papel fundamental para o equilíbrio do clima do planeta e por isso precisam ser imediatamente conservadas.

Por isso, enquanto no âmbito político das negociações muitos pontos ainda precisam avançar, investimentos de países industrializados, que possuem metas de redução de emissões de gases do efeito estufa, e organismos internacionais, como o Banco Mundial, estão sendo anunciados em Bali e chegam a cifras de bilhões de dólares nos próximos quatro anos.

O governo norueguês, por exemplo, informou que investirá um total de 2,7 bilhões de dólares entre 2008 e 2012 (período de vigência do Protocolo de Kyoto) para apoiar países em desenvolvimento a diminuir o desmatamento. Essa cifra representa cerca de 5% do que o Relatório Stern calculou ser necessário para acabar com a destruição das florestas pelo mundo.

Já o presidente do Banco Mundial, Robert Zoellick, veio à Indonésia lançar o “The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)” – um mecanismo de financiamento cuja finalidade é compensar econômicamente países em desenvolvimento que consigam implementar projetos para reduzir emissões de gases do efeito estufa através do combate ao desmatamento.

Embora essas iniciativas possam sinalizar o início de um novo tempo para as florestas tropicais, alguns representantes da sociedade civil mantém um certo ar de ceticismo em relação às iniciativas dos investidores.

“O lançamento desse fundo revela a hipocrisia do Banco Mundial, que anuncia estar trabalhando no combate às mudanças climáticas, enquanto continua a financiar o setor de combustíveis fósseis”, ressaltou Daphne Wysham, co-diretora da Sustainable Energy & Economy Network (SEEN).

Ela enfatizou ainda que o Banco Mundial (através do International Finance Corporation - IFC) investe anualmente 17 vezes mais em projetos relacionados à geração de energia através de combustíveis fósseis do que injeta no recém criado Fundo da Terra (Earth Fund) também lançado em Bali com a proposta de combater os efeitos das mudanças climáticas, que recebeu 10 milhões de dólares do IFC e 60 milhões do GEF (Global Enviroment Facility).

Para a ong TFG (Tropical Forest Group), que promoveu uma manifestação em Bali com a destruição de árvores infláveis representando a lentidão nas negociações sobre desmatamento, o importante é definir o funcionamento do que vem sendo chamado de REDD (Reduce Emissions from Deforastation in Developing Countries). Os negociadores precisam esclarecer como o REDD funcionará, constituindo-se como um mecanismo de mercado tal como se dá com o carbono ou um fundo a ser acessado pelos países detentores de florestas tropicais em apoio à redução das emissões.

O desafio dos negociadores em Bali está em como criar mecanismos formais para preservar as florestas e como criar formas de valoração para os chamados serviços florestais, incluindo desde a riqueza genética da biodiversidade presente nestes ecossistemas até o importante papel de absorver C02 e regular o clima planetário.

Somente as árvores da Amazônia contêm pelo menos 100 bilhões de toneladas de carbono, equivalentes a 15 anos de emissões globais originadas em todas as fontes naturais e humanas, segundo cálculos de Dan Nepstad, cientista do Centro de Pesquisas Woods Hole, que divulgou em Bali o informe “The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and fire into greenhouse” (Os círculos viciosos da Amazônia: seca e incêndio na estufa), apresentado pela ONG WWF.

por Juliana Radler, Jornal do Meio Ambiente e Envolverde, Rio de Janeiro/Brasil

Quem diria: o governador do Mato Grosso, Blairo Maggi, maior produtor individual de soja do mundo e tido como vilão do desmatamento, está na Conferência de Mudanças Climáticas que acontece em Bali até o próximo dia 14. Maggi participará nesta quinta-feira, dia 13, de um evento organizado pelo IPAM (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia) sobre os custos e os benefícios de se reduzir o desmatamento e a degradação da terra na Amazônia Brasileira.

Acompanhado por uma comitiva de cerca de 15 pessoas, Maggi tem em seu currículo títulos como o de Motossera de Ouro, dado pelo Greenpeace através de uma campanha virtual de preferência popular. Controlador do Grupo Amaggi, estima-se que 5% da produção anual do grão brasileiro seja proveniente de suas fazendas.

Sempre polêmico, Maggi afirmou em matéria para o jornal The New York Times, que “um aumento de 40% no desmatamento não significa nada. Estamos falando de uma área maior que a Europa toda e que foi muito pouco explorada. Não há razão para se preocupar”.

Agora, resta esperar para saber o que dirá Maggi diante de uma platéia que negocia em Bali a redução do desmatamento e, por sua vez, das emissões dos gases do efeito estufa. Durante o evento de quinta, Maggi sentará lado a lado com Daniel Nepstad (do Woods Hole Research Center e autor de estudo “Os ciclos viciosos da Amazônia: estiagem e queimadas na floresta estufa”, divulgado pela WWF), com Steve Schwartzman, da Environmental Defense e Paulo Moutinho, do IPAM.

by Sun Xiaohua, China Daily, Beijing/China

Net export of embodied energy in international trade from China has grown in recent years because of the country's trade surplus, according to a study released yesterday.

Embodied energy refers to that required for raw material procurement, manufacture, transport, construction, maintenance and repair.

A new report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) with the support of the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) was delivered on the sidelines of the UN climate change conference in Bali.

"The embodied energy in import and export has always been ignored in studies on international trade and mitigation scenarios, even in international climate change negotiations," said Pan Jiahua, deputy director of the Research Center for Urban and Environmental Studies under CASS.

His studies showed that in 2002, the net export of embodied energy in international trade from China was about 240 million tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 16 percent of the world's total primary energy consumption. In 2006, that figure became 630 million tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 25.7 percent of primary energy consumption.

"The figures showed a tremendous growth of net export of embodied energy from China, no matter in absolute value or increase rate," the report said.

The consumption of embodied energy leads to a large degree of greenhouse emission.

In 2006, the amount of the embodied emission from China's export was around 1,846 million tons of coal equivalent, and that from import was around 800 million tons of coal equivalent. So the net export was more than 1,000 million tons of coal equivalent, Pan said in his report.

The rapid increase in China's emission is not only driven by domestic demands, but also by international trade because of China's position as the world's processing factory, the report said.

By Sun Xiaohua, China Daily, Beijing/China

During the Bali UN Climate Change Conference China called on rich nations to establish a public fund within the Kyoto Protocol to facilitate transfer of green technology to developing countries.

Part of the revenues for the fund could be generated by developed countries levying taxes on carbon emissions, environmental pollution or energy and resource consumption, said Zou Ji, one of 40-odd Chinese delegates attending the world climate conference which is in its crucial final week.

At yesterday's meeting, the UN climate chief, Yvo de Boer, said cutting emissions by up to 40 percent was crucial for reining in rising temperatures and drawing investors who can provide the high-tech solutions needed to ward off catastrophe.

Zou, also a professor at Renmin University of China, said technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be more popular in developing countries if the pricing is reasonable.

He said the fund he proposed will provide incentives to technology holders, mostly big private companies, to transfer technologies to countries such as China, which is thirsty for green expertise.

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, industrialized countries are obliged to take practical steps to promote, facilitate and finance the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to developing countries.

"However, China has had to pay very high prices for such technologies to raise energy efficiency and facilitate sustainable development," Zou said.

Citing the example of Integrated Gasification Combined Circle (IGCC) technology used in power generation, he said it has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 25-50 percent, or even more, which will help China - which depends mostly on coal for power generation - to cut emissions sharply.

But there is no commercial plant using IGCC technology in the country because the cost of power generation is about two times that of conventional production.

China urgently needs advanced green technologies not only in power generation but also in transportation, construction, metallurgy and chemical industries, he said.

The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), an international non-governmental organization, said "They (developed countries) need to recognize the need of developing countries for technology transfer and financing of new, cleaner technologies – and they need to put up the cash to support their good intentions."

By Yasmin Arquiza, Bandillo ng Palawan, Manila/Philippines

By Thomas Katamila, NAMPA, Windhoek/Namibia

Namibia would lose one to six per cent of GDP over 20 years because of the impact of climate change on the country’s natural resources, if people were to continue with an attitude of ‘business as usual’.

This was the warning from Environment and Tourism Minister Willem Konjore when he addressed the high-level segment of the United Nations climate change conference here on Wednesday.

He said Namibia is highly vulnerable to climate change in three aspects listed by the global Human Development Report of 2007, namely agriculture and food security, water shortages and coastal areas.

“These vulnerabilities threaten our very survival as a nation since Namibia’s economy is dependent on natural resources. Up to 30 per cent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is directly reliant on the environment and ecosystem services. There is also a looming threat of decreasing crop production, livestock losses and water shortages. In fact, Namibia is predicted to face an absolute water shortage by 2020”, he noted. Konjore said the rising sea levels could also submerge some of the coastal areas, and affect the country’s fisheries and marine industry.

 “One of our popular coastal destinations for domestic and regional tourists, Mile 4, is under water and holidaymakers will not be able to go there during the festive season. Nature and biodiversity-based tourism is threatened”, he explained.

The Minister thus urged all gathered here to adopt a sense of urgency as the impacts of climate change are undermining all development efforts, and now pose one of the greatest challenges to the attainment of Namibia’s development goals, including meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

 “We are at war and we need to fight the war with all the ammunition we have and we should win it”, he stressed.

Meanwhile, World Bank president Robert B. Zoellick told delegates that climate change "is a development, economic and investment challenge. It offers an opportunity for economic and social transformation that can lead to an inclusive and sustainable globalisation. That is why addressing climate change is a critical pillar of the development agenda", he noted. He said discussions at the conference can help fulfil the hopes and aspirations of these communities and help them manage the changes in health conditions, food production, water resources, coastal integrity and biodiversity.

The gathering, the 13th Conference of the 192 Parties to the UNFCCC and the third meeting of the 176 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, is being attended by more than 11.000 people, making it the largest UN climate meeting ever held.

The world expects an agreement to launch negotiations towards a comprehensive climate change agreement from Bali. All eyes are on a roadmap to a more secure climate future, coupled with a tight time-line that produces a deal by 2009.

The date is crucial not only to ensure continuity after 2012, when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires, but equally to address the desperate urgency of the situation itself.

Konjore, Dr Kaire Mbuende as well as other senior government officials like Theo Nghitila are representing Namibia here.

By Nguyen Thai Thanh, Vietnam Television, Hanoi/Vietnam

 

One of the thereat with 84 millions Vietnamese currently is waste. Hanoi, the capital city is going to celebration 1.000 years of establish in 2010, is hard to find the solutions for waste treatment system and still fails.

Now a new so called Solid Waster Processing Plant at  Bali, Indonesia shall prove better. The PT Organics located on the land lease shall run for a minimum of 20 years on a 10 ha landfill. The Indonesian Government is not involved directly in the project. It assigned to work with the Project’s Inventor as a public private partnership to set up the facility which uses the General Electrics (GE) energy technology.

In Vietnam, protect campaigns from local people where the waste treatment is located begins when the first news are public. However, that situation did not happen with the local people in Bali. According to Dr Robert D. Eden, Technical Director of PT Organics, the preparation process is still very important.

“Public awareness about the objectives of the project is crucial for the success”, Dr Robert D. Eden told at a press meeting.

“An environmental report impact had to be made and twice put forward to public hearing and a clean environmental report impact is an integral pact of the main contract with the government”, he added.

After 3 years of under construction, the project has a total investment of around USD 20 millions and created jobs for 300 local employees. It will deliver an estimated 800,000 tons of waste per day to the IPSC Sarbagita processing plant in Denpasar Selatan. 75% shall be organic waste and 25% non-organic waste; 55% organic waste is wet, 20% is dry. According to GE figures 175 million tonnes of waste can produce around 2.5 Megawatt electricity.

The project has been approved as a CDM project, registered with UNFCCC as project number 0938. According to the UN the amount of reductions is 123,423 tonnes/annum.

Everyday, 350 trucks from all of the area of Denpasang carry waste to supply to the project so that it contributes to clean up Bali with 3 millions people.

According to Mr Gatot Prawira, GE Country Executive Indonesia, 10 CDM projects are registered in Indonesia, 1 under review, 3 request registration with more than 2.5 millions CERs/year.

“The profit of the Solid Waster Processing Plant is not confirmed yet and the price of every kilowatt electrics is still higher than indonesias average, but we can work together for a long term partnership and a commitment for a better future”, Mr Gatot Prawira added.

As the host country for the United Nation Climate Change Conference (UNCCC), Indonesias President, Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said, “developing countries must commit to do a path of sustainable development by mainstreaming the environment in our national development plans.”

He also mentioned that, “developing countries experiencing high economic growth must avoid the mistake of earlier industrial nations by planning long term low carbon development.”

By Andrea Varela, El Tiempo, Bogota/Colombia

Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, presidente del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático de Naciones Unidas (PICC), ha sido la otra cara visible del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2007 que la organización que encabeza ganó junto con Al Gore. También uno de los personajes más asediados en la Conferencia de Cambio Climático de Naciones Unidas en Bali (Indonesia).

Como autoridad mundial en temas energéticos es tal vez uno de los hombres más ocupados del mundo. Él mismo reconoce que hace visitas a su oficina en Nueva Delhi en medio de la noche para ponerse al día con todas sus labores: hace 25 años dirige el afamado Instituto Teri de investigación, es miembro de numerosos consejos directivos de organizaciones y fundaciones dedicadas

a trabajar por el desarrollo sostenible, es uno de los asesores del primer ministro indio en temas de cambio climático y además lidera el grupo de más de 2.000 científicos de la ONU encargados de darle evidencias al mundo de cómo el calentamiento global está afectando al planeta.

“Es un comunicador excelente, algo muy necesario porque los científicos por naturaleza no lo somos”, le dijo a El Tiempo el holandés Leo Meyer, otra de las autoridades del Panel, en el marco de la Conferencia de Bali. Y agregó: “Su gran virtud es poder explicar cosas en una forma simple y entendible ante la prensa y los políticos. Sabe lo que el otro necesita entender”.

Este año, con motivo del último estudio que el Panel publicó, advirtió en su estilo pedagógico pero muy realista, que si la temperatura promedio de la tierra se incrementa en más de 1,5 por ciento, 30 de cada cien especies animales y vegetales estarían en riesgo de extinción, especialmente en los ecosistemas marinos, y en los países tropicales la productividad agrícola de cultivos

como el maíz y el trigo caería a la mitad para el año 2020.

Devoción por la ciencia

Pachauri nació en los albores de la Segunda Guerra Mundial en Nainatal, India, ciudad del piedemonte del Himalaya cuyo origen mitológico parece una premonición de su vocación ambiental: al no encontrar agua en la zona, tres santos indios la trajeron de un lago sagrado en el Tíbet y crearon una laguna en forma de pera que en la vida real sufre el deterioro de sus ecosistemas por culpa de la alta tasa de urbanización de la zona.

 

Antes de convertirse en personaje, estudió en una prestigiosa escuela francesa en la ciudad de Lucknow, conocida como la Constantinopla de la India, donde se contagió de su espíritu cultural –Pachauri ha escrito 23 libros, no sólo científicos sino de poesía–. En Estados Unidos se convirtió en doctor por partida doble al obtener PhDs tanto en ingeniería industrial como en economía.

 

Srinivasan Ancha, investigador indio del Instituto para Estrategias Ambientales Globales del Japón, del que Pachauri es directivo, advierte que “aunque sus planteamientos en términos de seguridad energética suenan muy bien, el desafío es que quienes diseñan las políticas nacionales realmente implementen lo que él aconseja”.

 

El aspecto sereno, caracterizado por el gran mechón blanco que adorna su barba, la colección de muñecas rusas y casitas de porcelana holandesa que conserva en su oficina, y su forma pausada de hablar, contrastan con su capacidad de levantar ampolla. La última con el ministro de defensa de Brasil, al que no le gustó nada su declaración acerca de un posible tratado internacional para conservar la selva amazónica: “No voy a opinar sobre lo que debe hacer el gobierno brasileño pero el Amazonas es la mayor fuente natural para la captación de carbono. En el futuro debemos tener políticas claras y un acuerdo internacional para garantizar que la protección forestal aumente en el mundo”.

 

Un hombre común

Haciendo honor a su origen indio, Rajendra Pachauri es fiel seguidor del vegetarianismo “por motivos ambientales y sostenibles más que religiosos”.

Y como rasgo inconfundible los amigos resaltan su amor por el deporte. “Lo conozco hace 35 años y puedo asegurar que es buen y asiduo jugador de cricket”, afirmó Surya Sethi, principal consejero del gobierno indio en asuntos ambientales.

Leo Meyer reveló que detrás del personaje, ahora cientos de veces fotografiado al lado de Gore, “hay alguien abierto y amigable a quien no es necesario decirle: ¨Buenos días doctor Pachauri, perdón por interrumpirlo, ¿sería posible hablar con usted?¨. Con él la fórmula que funciona es:

¨Hola Patchi, ¿cómo amaneciste hoy?. Tenemos que hablar¨”.

 

A pesar de haber sido merecedor del premio Padma Bhushan, el más alto honor otorgado a un civil en la India y del título de Oficial de la Legión de Honor del gobierno francés, este ex profesor de Yale recién está siendo conocido masivamente en su propio país. “Tengo una hija de 8 años y lo primero que me preguntó cuando la llamé desde la Conferencia de Cambio Climático fue si ya le había estrechado la mano al Premio Nobel”, asegura el oceanógrafo Dinesh Kumar.

 

Además de lidiar con su falta de tiempo, Pachauri enfrenta el desafío de ayudar a crear conciencia ambiental en su país, donde al tiempo que 600 millones de personas viven sin electricidad y el 80 por ciento de su población subsiste con dos dólares diarios, el mundo le reclama compromisos para disminuir el uso de combustibles fósiles y la implementación de tecnologías limpias. También debe seguir como embajador del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático por lo menos hasta 2008 y como tal, conseguir que el trabajo de los científicos llegue a la gente común en lugar de terminar dormido en los libros.

By Priscilla Jebaraj, The Hindu, Chennai/India

Calling climate change "the moral challenge of our generation", UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon told ministers and delegates at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that the eyes of the world are on them as they decide the future shape of the global fight against climate change.

However, talks to launch negotiations for a post-2012 agreement stalled as delegates disagreed on the basic reference points for any such agreement and what it should contain. The first commitment period of the UNFCCC's  Kyoto Protocol, which mandates just over 5 per cent cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialised nations, expires in 2012.

Negotiators trying to forge a "Bali Roadmap" to launch negotiations wrangled over whether to mention scientific evidence of the need for an emissions cut between the range of 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 as part of the guidelines for the talks. While the European Union, supported by most developing nations, is aggressively pushing for the target range to be included in the text, they are being opposed by the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, who say that any mention of numbers will prejudge the negotiations.

Faced with such opposition, the Mr. Ban Ki-Moon warned that it might be too ambitious to agree on such target guidelines at this conference.

"Practically speaking, this will have to be negotiated down the road," he said, adding that what was important now was to launch formal negotiations immediately with a 2009 deadline. He emphasised that any new deal must be comprehensive, involving all nations.

Developing countries are reading his statement and similar statements by developed countries to mean that the pressure to bring on board the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, the United States, could lead to compromise. That could even include a new agreement that abandons the Kyoto Protocol.

"We are concerned at the attempts to create a new framework, which may result in the dilution of specific and time bound commitments on emission reductions by developed countries. This should not be allowed to happen," said Kapil Sibal, India's Minister for Science and Technology.

He was echoed by the leader of the Pakistani delegation Munir Akram, who also represents the Group of 77 developing nations and China at the summit. The talks "should not result in the erosion of the Convention or the Kyoto Protocol or the replacement of these by a less equitable instrument," he warned, reiterating that the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol remain the central multilateral framweork for cooperative action to address climate change. Brazil and several other developing countries expressed similar concerns.

Portuguese Environment Minister Francisco Nunes Correia, who is also representing the European Union, reiterated the group's support for the UNFCCC, but refused to categorically state that the post-2012 agreement would be within the Kyoto Protocol's framework.

Developing nations want to stick to the Protocol's formula in any post-2012 deal: mandatory emissions cuts only for developed nations, with developing economies expected to contribute in other ways. "They [developed countries] are not able to meet their commitments, so they want to wangle out of it by proposing a new deal," said an Indian negotiator.

In an effort to break the deadlock on these issues, as well as on clean technology transfers and capacity building efforts, conference hosts Indonesia convened an informal meeting with a group of about 40 influential nations, including India, on Wednesday evening. These discussions will determine if the Bali Roadmap, which will be announced at the end of the conference on Friday, can produce a clear agenda for the future.

By Thomas Katamila, NAMPA, Windhoek/Namibia

The United Nations climate change talks in Bali are on the verge of collapse as the European Union and the United States of America trade accusations over emissions targets.

In a dramatic turn of events on Thursday afternoon, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer warned that unless agreement is reached here, ‘the whole house of cards falls to pieces’.  He said a number of outstanding issues taken into the high-level segment of the talks when the latter opened this week with the arrival of environment ministers and five Heads of State had been linked to each other, thereby creating an “all or nothing” scenario.

The USA is opposing binding emissions limits and feels that not everything needs to be resolved here but can be followed by months of constructive negotiations. Not so, says the EU.  They are accusing the US delegation of blocking progress at this conference, and have even threatened to boycott a climate summit set for next month that is to be hosted by the self-same US President George W. Bush.  Former US Vice-President and Nobel laureate Al Gore arrived here on Thursday, and was scathing of his home country’s stance.  “My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali. We all know that. But my country is not the only one that can take steps to ensure that we move forward from Bali with progress and hope”, he charged. Gore said he was going to speak an inconvenient truth, explaining that the human species faces a planetary emergency.

He said the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s report gives “a deadly accurate description of the situation that the world must now confront”. Gore and the IPCC won the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo last week “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change". In its report, the IPCC under the chairmanship of India’s Dr. Rajendra Pachauri warns that millions of people could be affected by more heat waves, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and smaller harvests.  Developing nations like India and China are being frustrated big-time by the US position, something that can leave the US with empty seats at their own climate meeting next month. The USA, for their part, feel they are on track at these talks and committed to all the elements as set out by De Boer. Dr Paula J. Dobriansky, who is the Under-Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs and Head of the US delegation, said they have addressed a number of points like how to go forward, and for a plan in which everyone is on board.  They are looking at a comprehensive agreement, a comprehensive roadmap that encompasses all four key areas being mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing.  James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, feels that the next two years of conversation on the Bali Roadmap need to be about each nation or region’s relative strengths in making progress and the understanding of each nation’s relative weakness in the ability to make progress so that all can move forward.

He said the main effort here in Bali should be to get all of the countries to agree in concept that they will collectively support a long-term global goal for reducing emissions. That’s the first step before people can sit down and work through the specifics of what that goal might be, something which he feels will require a fair amount of deliberation and discussion.  “I think those who are suggesting that you can magically find agreement on a metric when you are just starting negotiations – that in itself is a blocking effort”, Connaughton argued.

Dobriansky said there is a strong desire on the part of all participants, the USA included, to have a successful outcome in Bali.  “We want a roadmap that charts a path forward, that launches and advances negotiation and that has a deadline”, she noted.  On the other side of the spectrum are the US non-governmental organisations (NGOs), who are utterly disappointed by their country’s shenanigans.

Kevin Knobloch of the Union of Concerned Scientists said on the sidelines here that the US delegation is tarnishing the image of their country as they hobble along.  He said the ‘unconscionable actions’ of the US team in questioning the confirmed clarity of the IPCC report is strange, as the country agreed to these findings four times over already this year.  Knobloch said every year from here forward is precious, as climate issues have now gone beyond ‘dangerous’.

Carl Pope of the Sierra Club stressed that the US delegation here seems to be out of touch with the concerns of their people back home.  He said at every turn in the conference when it appeared that agreement was possible, the US delegation have slowed down progress or deferred decisions.  “It is quite clear that the US Administration lacks the will to do what it knows must be done. It is the most explicitly irresponsible action by any US administration in any of our lifetimes. They should not be forgiven for they know what they are doing”, he roared. The NGOs further said they felt ‘embarassed’, spoke of a ‘missed opportunity’, and felt it was all ‘completely unacceptable’.

Climate change is a global issue and can seriously harm the future development of economies, societies and eco-systems worldwide.  As such, tackling climate change and its impacts can only be successfully coordinated at the international level, which forum is being granted by the UNFCCC.  This Bali meeting was thus supposed to chart a roadmap, but is slowly descending into chaos.

Among the world's top economies, the US still stands out as the number one polluter. With less than 5 per cent of the world's population, the US is the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases and is responsible for almost a quarter of global emissions of carbon dioxide.

The US wants to water down a proposed plan for fighting climate change, arguing that action to reduce greenhouse gases will be more costly and time-consuming than scientists claim.  They also play down the benefits of reducing emissions, disputing recommendations by European governments that greenhouse gases be capped at around 445 parts per million in the air. The current level of greenhouse gases is about 430 ppm.

The IPCC also reports that emissions can be cut below current levels if the world shifts away from carbon-heavy fuels like coal, invests in energy efficiency and reforms the agriculture sector.  The simple answer is that because industrialised nations have bigger economies and have been burning fossil fuels for a hundred years or more, they are responsible for most of the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. However, all nations are responsible to one degree or another.  Science tells us that emissions must peak in the next 10 to 15 years, and then be reduced by half of 2000 levels by 2050.  Towards this end, the Bali Roadmap must signal the resolve of developed countries to reduce emissions by at least 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

Diplomats hope the Bali meeting will agree to find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the only worldwide deal on cutting carbon emissions blamed for global warming. The pact expires in 2012.

por  Rodrigo Lopez, Zero Hora, Porto Alegre/Brasil

Por causa da Amazônia, o Brasil tradicionalmente atrai a atenção em conferências sobre mudanças climáticas. E quem estava na sexta-feira em Bali gostou do que ouviu.

Segundo o Ministério do Meio Ambiente do Brasil, o ritmo de redução da mata caiu pelo terceiro ano consecutivo e atingiu o segundo menor índice já registrado - o mais baixo foi 11.030 quilômetros quadrados, em 1991.

Entre agosto de 2006 e julho de 2007, a Amazônia perdeu uma área de 11.224 quilômetros quadrados. Embora houvesse no governo expectativa de uma queda maior, o número revela uma redução de 20% em comparação com o ano anterior e eleva o total acumulado de cortes do desmatamento nos últimos três anos a quase 60%.

Ironia vira arma ambiental

A área em frente ao centro de convenções de Bali é uma espécie de palco para demonstrações teatrais, protestos de ONGs ambientais e de todo o tipo de maluco fantasiado. Do lado de dentro do prédio, nos estandes, organizações de defesa ambiental fazem propaganda de seus projetos.

Uma iniciativa inusitada é o prêmio Fóssil do Dia, distribuído pela Rede de Ação do Clima, que reúne mais de 400 ONGs ambientais. Os "vencedores" são escolhidos em uma votação depois de cada dia. Ganha a delegação do país que mais atravanca o diálogo para salvar o planeta. Na sexta-feira, foram eleitos Canadá e Estados Unidos. O Brasil tem escapado.

Calor e trânsito

Duas coisas chamam a atenção logo no desembarque em Bali. A primeira é o calor úmido, que faz escorrer o suor pela testa mesmo à noite. A segunda é o trânsito intenso de motocicletas, febre no Sudeste Asiático. Aqui, a direção fica no lugar do carona, como na Grã-Bretanha, e o fluxo do trânsito é pela direita. A impressão que se tem é de que, a qualquer momento, alguém vai se enganar e entrar na contramão.

Ônus do turismo

Os dólares e euros despejados em Bali trouxeram também uma triste realidade. Como na Tailândia, Camboja e Vietnã, o turismo sexual aqui é escancarado. À noite, nas ruas de Kuta e Nusa Dua é comum ver ocidentais de mãos dadas com adolescentes.

Noite

Os atentados terroristas de 2002 atingiram em cheio o turismo em Bali. Na noite de sexta-feira, carros e caixas de som de danceterias tentavam atrair os turistas. Porém, por volta da meia-noite, o movimento era pequeno naquela que deveria ser a mais badalada das praias de Bali.

Inglês macarrônico

Bom humor não falta aos habitantes de Bali. Sorridentes, prestativos, eles tentam deixar o visitante à vontade. Só não tente aprofundar um assunto em inglês.

- Você fala inglês? - perguntei ao taxista.

- Sim - disse ele.

- Como está a temperatura nessa época do ano em Bali?

- Sim - respondeu.

Brasil anuncia criação de fundo para proteger Amazônia       

por Rodrigo Lopes, Zero Hora, Porto Alegre/Brasil

O governo anunciou ontem no final do dia um Fundo de Proteção e Conservação da Amazônia Brasileira, uma iniciativa que foi bastante aplaudida aqui na conferência de Bali.

A idéia é juntar R$ 1 bilhão de reais em contribuições voluntárias para investir na redução de desmatamento no Brasil. Esse fundo será lançado oficialmente no primeiro trimestre de 2008.

É, na verdade, uma versão em escala interna da proposta defendida pelo Brasil desde a conferência do clima dem Nairóbi (Quênia), mas que não vem conseguindo muito apoio nas negociações no âmbito das Nações Unidas, sobre redução de emissões por desmatamento.

Com um mecanismo simples, o fundo pretende atrair investimentos de governos, inclusive internacionais, empresas e até doações de pessoas físicas para redução dos índices de desmatamento da Amazônia.

Em troca da verba, o governo brasileiro vai distribuir diplomas que certificarão a redução de emissões de carbono equivalente cada doação. Esses papéis, no entanto, não podem ser negociados em qualquer mercado e vão servir apenas como certificados da iniciativa.

O governo da Noruega, um dos mais entusiasmados com a iniciativa, foi o primeiro a confirmar a contribuição, mas ainda não há valores definidos.

É a carta que o Brasil mantinha na manga para limpar a imagem de intransigente e tentar salvar as negociações sobre o combate às emissões no período pós-protocolo de Kyoto, que nos últimos dias racharam devido a tensões entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento.  

por Rodrigo Lopes, Zero Hora, Porto Alegre/Brasil

Não adiantou o café da manhã oferecido pelo Brasil aos representantes dos países que discutem em Bali, na Indonésia, o futuro da luta contra o aquecimento global. Tampouco o apelo feito pelo secretário-geral da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), Ban Ki-moon, para que os EUA flexibilizem suas posições. Nem mesmo protestos irônicos, como o da organização ambientalista World Wildlife Fund (WWF), que pôs militantes a se arrastarem pelo chão em frente ao centro de convenções de Bali para, vestidos de lesma, criticar a lentidão da conferência.

Estancada por um impasse, a conferência sobre mudanças climáticas caminha para o fracasso. Os líderes de cerca de 180 países reunidos na praia de Nusa Dua, em Bali, não conseguiram superar a polêmica sobre a fixação de metas concretas para o corte de emissões de gases poluentes por países desenvolvidos. Ontem, nos corredores do gigantesco centro de convenções, diplomatas, negociadores e técnicos já consideravam a questão das metas "descartada".

Nunca se pensou em sair daqui com metas concretas para 2012. Temos até 2009 para conversar - afirmou um integrante da delegação brasileira.

O próprio secretário executivo da conferência da ONU, Yvo de Boer, sentado ao lado de Ban Ki-moon, descartou o assunto.

Ninguém pensava que esses números seriam discutidos aqui - declarou De Boer.

Assim, o ponto mais importante das discussões - e sobre o qual havia maior expectativa - deve ficar de fora do chamado "mapa de Bali", o documento final da reunião. Diante da recusa de países como EUA, Japão e Canadá de aceitar metas, a saída tem sido fixar um prazo final para a decisão. Tudo deve ficar para fevereiro de 2009, na próxima reunião da convenção, em Copenhague.

Retórica dominou encontro promovido pelo Brasil

A União Européia defende a adoção de metas ambiciosas para os países industrializados: a redução de suas emissões entre 20% e 40% a partir de 2020, se quiserem que a temperatura média do planeta não aumente mais do que 2ºC. Mas o bloco liderado por EUA e Canadá tem bloqueado a proposta.

Em uma tentativa de mudar os rumos da conferência, o chanceler brasileiro, Celso Amorim, convidou alguns ministros para um café da manhã ontem no Salão Japonês do Hotel Westin. Segundo diplomatas, todos os líderes se mostraram "abertos ao diálogo" - o que, na prática, a dois dias do final do encontro, não significa muita coisa.

Na abertura das reuniões de alto nível, os ministros condenaram o atentado contra escritórios da ONU na Argélia. Depois, cada um falou por cerca de cinco minutos sobre o "desafio moral" de se fazer alguma coisa para conter a elevação da temperatura do planeta. Mais uma vez, não se saiu da retórica oficial, e tudo indica que o texto final de Bali será fraco, sem compromissos. O documento deve ser concluído amanhã ou na madrugada de sábado. Mas, em vez de um mapa a indicar um caminho para salvar o planeta, possivelmente não irá passar de uma burocrática agenda para novas reuniões.

By Priscilla Jebaraj, The Hindu, Chennai/India

The United States worsened the deadlock in global climate change talks putting forward a proposal that seems to completely discard the international UN framework, in favour of separate national-level efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without any binding international commitments.

"It is their national position. But it is one thing to have a national position and another to impose it on the world...without even mentioning the Convention framework," said a senior member of the Indian delegation at the ongoing UN Framework Convention on Climate Change conference which is trying to construct a Bali road map to launch negotiations to create a post-2012 global climate agreement by the end of 2009. The first commitment period of the Convention's Kyoto Protocol, which the United States has not ratified, ends in 2012.

The new US text calls for "domestic mitigation actions" and "national emission limitation and reduction objectives, taking into account national circumstances".

The Group of 77 developing countries and China have rejected the US plan, and have put forward their own proposal. A senior member of the Indian delegation said that the G-77 proposal offered their suggestions on how to engage the US without diluting the agreement.

Greenpeace International's Shane Rattenbury accused the US of trying to make it impossible to reach an agreement in Bali. "This proposal would throw away 12 years of progress. It's a made-in-the-USA plan for a climate catastrophe, undoing any commitments to cutting greenhouse gases," he said.

A group of ministers from about 40 of the most influential nations have been closeted in an all-night meeting Thursday in an effort to break the deadlock. The conference ends on Friday.

Even as the ministers deliberated, the star campaigner on climate change and new Nobel Laureate Al Gore urged delegates to forge an ambitious deal without his country. "I am not an official and I am not bound by diplomatic niceties. So I am going to speak an inconvenient truth: My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali," Mr. Gore said to loud applause. Anticipating a change in US government by 2009, Mr. Gore called on delegates to "negotiate around this enormous obstacle, this elephant in the room", rather than issuing a vague, uncommitted road map in an effort to include the US.

"You can feel anger and frustration and direct it at the United States of America. Or you can make a second choice, you can decide to move forward and do all of the difficult work that needs to be done and save a large open blank space in your document and put a footnote by it," he suggested.

Earlier in the day, the European Union expressed disappointment over the US position and threatened to boycott the US-hosted meeting of major emitters, to be held in Hawaii next month, unless a deal could be reached here. "If this meeting does not deliver a deal, then there is no point to the major emitters process. That must feed into this," said EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.

By Andrea Varela, El Tiempo, Bogota/Colombia

 

“La voluntad política es un recurso renovable”. Con esas palabras esperanzadoras el ex vicepresidente de los Estados Unidos Al Gore,  ganador del Premio Nobel de Paz, del Oscar de la Academia, autor best-seller y el mejor mensajero la amenaza que representa el calentamiento global por estos días puso el dedo en la llaga de una audiencia repleta de delegados políticos de más de 180 países que negocian hasta mañana la política climática global en la Conferencia de Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (COP13) en Bali (Indonesia).

 

En su primera intervención pública desde que recibió el Nobel a comienzos de la semana en Oslo, Gore recibió una sonora ovación al reconocer que sobre el gobierno de su país recae la responsabilidad de no asumir compromisos para reducir sus emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Pero agregó que el hecho de que no lo haga oficialmente por el momento –Estados Unidos es la única potencia que se ha negado a ratificar el protocolo de Kioto– no debe ser un obstáculo para estancar las negociaciones en Bali.

 

“Pueden sentirse enojados y frustrados por eso o seguir adelante, hacer el trabajo que tiene que hacerse y guardarle (a Estados Unidos) un gran espacio en blanco que seguramente con el tiempo se llenará ”. Puso como ejemplo el caso de Australia que sorpresivamente ratificó el protocolo en esta COP después de su cambio de gobierno.

Aprovechó entonces para deslizar el dato de que en Estados Unidos hay elecciones presidenciales en un año y cuarenta días exactamente, en una clara alusión a que es la actitud del presidente George Bush la que encarna las principales trabas para ratificar el Protocolo.

 

Enfundado en un impecable traje negro, el líder político también apeló a numerosas citas célebres que cayeron como anillo al dedo a cientos de diplomáticos que por esta hora viven los rigores típicos de esta clase de negociaciones ambientales.

 

“Debemos primero salvarnos nosotros para luego salvar a nuestro país”, de Abraham Lincoln; “Caminante no hay camino, se hace camino al andar”, de Antonio Machado o el proverbio africano que reza “si quieres llegar rápido, ve solo. Si quieres llegar lejos, ve acompañado”, fueron algunas de las frases que también arrancaron aplausos de un público que se agolpó para esperarlo como si fuera una estrella de Hollywood.